ʻO ka lā 13 o Mei aʻe ka makahiki he kanakolukumamākahi o ka make ʻana o ka mea makemakika Polani ʻo Stanislaw Ulam (1909 - 1984), kekahi o nā lālā o ka papahana Manhattan, nāna, e like me kāu e ʻike ai, ua kauoha ʻia, i waena o nā mea ʻē aʻe, e hana i ka ka pahu hydrogen mua ma ka mōʻaukala. ʻO ka mea pōʻino, ʻike mākou iā mākou iho i kahi manawa i ʻike maopopo ʻia ai nā pilikia kūlohelohe o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka ikehu nuklea no nā kumu ʻaʻole maluhia maoli. ʻO Ulam kekahi o nā mea hōʻeuʻeu loa a hoʻomāinoino ʻia me ka hoʻomohala hope ʻana o ka pōkā atomika. ʻO ka haʻalele ʻana i kēlā hoʻopaʻapaʻa, maopopo ʻaʻole i lanakila, ʻo ia ka nīnau o ke kuleana o ka mea makemakika inoffensive (a priori), me kāna helu ʻana a me kāna mau hoohalike, e pāʻani ai i kahi mea e like me kēia.
E nānā kākou.
Inā mākou e ʻimi i ka ʻike e pili ana iā Ulam, e ʻike mākou ua puʻunaue ʻia kāna mau haʻawina makemakika ma nā kahua like ʻole e like me ka helu theory, set theory, ergodic theory and algebraic topology. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke loiloi i nā mea he nui i ka loiloi hoʻokahi, no laila e nānā mākou i kēia manawa i ke kumu hoʻohālike āna i hoʻomohala pū ai me kekahi akamai o ka makemakika a me ka ʻepekema kamepiula, nāna i hana ma ka Los Alamos Laboratory i ka papahana Manhattan i ʻōlelo ʻia ma mua, The Hungarian. - ʻAmelika Mathematician John Von Neumann (1903 – 1957), i kapa ʻia ʻo ke ʻano hana ʻo Monte Carlo.
ʻO ka mea mua, he mea maʻalahi ke hoʻomanaʻo i kekahi mau manaʻo e wehewehe iki i ke ʻano o nā pilikia a mākou e hana ai. I ka wā e pili ana i ka hoʻohālike ʻana i kekahi ʻano a i ʻole ke kūlana e hiki mai ana a puni mākou (he hoʻokolohua hiki ke maʻalahi e like me ka hoʻolei ʻana i ke kālā i ka lewa, a i ʻole ka paʻakikī e like me ka wehewehe ʻana i ka loli o ka wai i ka wā e haki ai ka paipu i loko o ka hale, a pehea e hoʻohālike ai. ka neʻe hoʻopuehu ʻana o nā neutrons i nā mea hoʻoheheʻe nuklea). Hana ʻia kēia hoʻohālike o ka mea hiki ke hana ʻia e kahi algorithm (kahi huaʻōlelo i kamaʻāina i nā ola no kekahi manawa).
ʻAʻole ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o kahi algorithm ma mua o nā lula paʻa, ʻo ia mau mea, e hana hou i kahi kaʻina hana. No ka laʻana, e hoʻohui, hoʻihoʻi, hoʻonui a puʻunaue paha i ʻelua mau helu a mākou e hoʻohana ai i kēlā me kēia hihia he algorithm (nā mea a lākou e aʻo mai ai iā mākou ma ke kula), ka hana ʻana i kahi keke, ka neʻe ʻana o nā kaʻa ma waena o ke kūlanakauhale, ka wehewehe ʻana o kahi mele, ʻO nā mea a pau a mākou e hana ai (i kekahi manawa me kekahi mau ʻano like ʻole, ma ia hihia, hoʻololi mākou i ka algorithm) hiki ke wehewehe ʻia e nā lula, e kahi algorithm. Hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia nā hoʻokolohua (a mākou e hoʻohālikelike ai me ka hoʻohana ʻana i kēia mau algorithms) i ʻelua ʻano kumu: deterministic a random (a i ʻole probabilistic). He mea hoʻoholo ke ʻano like kona hopena e like me ka lōʻihi o ka hoʻomaka ʻana mai nā kūlana like (inā hāʻule mākou i kahi mea, ʻike maopopo mākou e pau ana i ka lepo; inā mākou e wela i ka ipu wai, ʻike mākou e pau ia. e hoʻolapalapa ana), ʻoiai ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻopaʻa ʻia ʻo ia ka hopena like inā hana mākou i ka mea like (e hoʻolei i ke kālā, e huki i ka pōleʻa mai kahi pahu, ʻike i kahi e pa ai ka uila). ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo nā mea kūlohelohe wale nō ka mea maʻemaʻe, no ka mea, me ke kālā, ka pōleʻa i loko o ka urn, a me nā mea ʻē aʻe, ua ʻike mākou i kāna ʻano ma ke aʻo ʻana i kēlā kālā, a i ʻole ka mīkini e unuhi i ka pōleʻa. ʻO ia ke kumu e kamaʻilio ai mākou no nā hoʻokolohua pseudo-random (nā mea i hilinaʻi ʻia i kekahi mea kiʻi i hana ʻia e ke kanaka) a maʻemaʻe. Akā ʻaʻole mākou e hoʻokaʻawale i nā mea ma hope, e hoʻomaʻamaʻa i nā mea. Hoʻokumu ʻia ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana o nā hoʻokolohua a i ʻole nā manaʻo deterministic ma kahi ʻano i ʻike ʻia a pani ʻia, akā ua hoʻokumu ʻia nā ʻāpana i ka hana ʻana o nā helu maʻamau a me ka nānā ʻana o nā probabilities pili.
nā juegos de cartas
I loko o ka hana i hoʻokō pono i ka hoʻopuehu ʻana o nā ʻāpana i ka nuklea fission, ua ʻōlelo aku nā physicists i ʻāpana o ka Manhattan Project i hōʻike ʻia i kahi ʻano hana ʻole. No ko lākou manaʻo, hiki ke koho ʻia nā kaʻina hana ʻelua: hoʻoholo i nā hoʻohālikelike hoʻohui-ʻokoʻa e hoʻokele i ka hoʻopuehu, absorption a me ka fission, a i ʻole e lawe i ka ʻikepili mai nā hoʻokolohua maoli. ʻAʻole hiki i kekahi a i ʻole kekahi (ʻo ka mua no ka mea ʻaʻole mākou i ʻike pehea e hoʻoponopono pololei ai i kēia ʻano like; ʻo ka lua no ka mea maopopo ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke hoʻokaʻawale i nā atomic). Ua makemake ʻo Stan Ulam i nā pāʻani kāleka a me ka helu ʻana i nā mea hiki ke loaʻa nā ala paʻakikī e hoʻāʻo a loaʻa i ka hoʻokūkū.
Maikaʻi, pāʻani solitaire, ʻike ʻia ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka manaʻo o ka hopena maʻamau o ka solitaire ma o ka hana ʻana i nā hoʻokolohua he nui me nā kiʻi a me ka helu ʻana i nā ʻāpana o nā hopena, ma mua o ka helu ʻana i nā mea hiki ke hui pū ʻia. He ho'āʻo nui kēia o ka hiki ke hana i nā helu maʻamau me ke kamepiula a loaʻa nā hopena. ʻOiaʻiʻo, hiki i ke kanaka ke hana i nā manawa he nui, akā hiki i kahi kamepiula ke hoʻohana i nā hola e hōʻike ana i nā helu, a i kēlā manawa e hana i nā haneli, mile, miliona i kēia lā, o nā simulation. A laila, ʻike ʻo ia e hiki ke hoʻohana like i ka ʻike ʻana i ke ʻano o kahi hanana kino, e like me ka hoʻopuehu ʻana o nā neutrons.
Ua wehewehe ʻo Ulam i ka manaʻo iā Von Neumann. ʻOiai i ka wā mua ʻaʻole ʻo ia i manaʻoʻiʻo ʻia, i ka manawa (a me ka hoʻāʻo ʻana paha) ua lilo ʻo ia i mea aloha maoli a maopopo i ke kaʻina hana. ʻOiai he mea huna nā mea a pau a lākou i hana ai ma Los Álamos, ua hāʻawi lākou i ka papahana i kahi helu helu, kahi o nā lālā o ka hui i bapetizo ai ʻo Montecarlo, e pili ana i ka Hale Piliwaiwai kaulana o ia kūlanakauhale. Ma hope o nā mea a pau, ʻo ka mea a ka roulette e hoʻopuka ai he mau helu maʻamau (e like me kaʻu i ʻōlelo ai ma mua, he wahaheʻe, no ka mea, pili ia i kahi mīkini mechanical, he pseudo-random; ʻoiaʻiʻo, nui nā mea pāʻani i loaʻa nā pōmaikaʻi nui ma ka nānā ʻana i ke ʻano o nā huila roulette a i ka unuhi ʻana i kahi ʻano hoʻohālikelike aʻu i hoʻohālike ai iā lākou), ʻoiai ua ʻae ʻo Ulam i ka helu ma ka "hanohano" o kahi ʻanakala o kona ʻanakala ʻaʻole i hana ʻē aʻe ma mua o ka hōʻaiʻē kālā mai nā mea a pau e pāʻani ma laila.
ʻO kēlā me kēia hihia, pono nā ʻano Montecarlo no nā simulation i koi ʻia, ʻoiai ua kaupalena ʻia e nā mea hana kamepiula o ia manawa (he ENIAC). I ka makahiki 1948, ua loaʻa nā hopena mua loa i ʻae ʻia o ke ʻano o ka nucleus fission. I ka makahiki 1950, ua lilo nā ʻano hana ʻo Monte Carlo i mea kōkua i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka pōkā hydrogen a lilo i mea kaulana i nā ʻano o ka physics, physics, a me ka noiʻi hana. ʻO ka Rand Corporation a me ka US Air Force ʻelua mau hui nui i hoʻopiʻi ʻia i ke kālā a me ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ka ʻike e pili ana i kēia mau ʻano. Mai ia manawa ʻaʻole lākou i hoʻōki i ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻana iā lākou iho a me ka ʻimi ʻana i nā noi i nā ʻano like ʻole, i waena o ka physics, lāʻau lapaʻau (nā kiʻi radiographic, ma luna o nā mea āpau), kemika molekala, ʻenekinia, hoʻolālā kiʻi, ʻoihana waiwai a me ka ʻoihana, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ka makemakika.
Nā hiʻohiʻona
ʻŌlelo pinepine ʻo ia i ka hoʻokolohua nila a Buffon e hoʻohālikelike i nā decimals o ka helu Pi ma ke ʻano he mea mua i nā ʻano hana Monte Carlo. Inā lawe mākou i kahi pepa kahi e kaha ai mākou i kekahi mau laina like ma kahi mamao d ma waena o lākou (e nānā i ke kiʻi), a hoʻokuʻu i kahi nila o ka lōʻihi l. 
ʻO ke kūpono paha aia ka nila ma ke kūlana
Ma hope mai, ua wehewehe ʻo Pierre Simon de Laplace (1749 - 1827) i kēia pilina ma ke ʻano he ala e ʻike ai i nā hoʻohālikelike i nā decimals o Pi. Pehea? Huki pinepine i ka nila a me ka helu ʻana i ka nui o nā nila i koe i ke kūlana a. ʻO kēlā waiwai i puʻunaue ʻia me ka huina o nā kīloi e pili ana i kēlā waiwai o ka probability p, a no laila e maʻalahi ka helu ʻana o Pi:
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole kūpono loa ka hoʻohālikelike i loaʻa: no laila e loaʻa ana i 5 mau wahi decimal pololei me ka 3400 kiola ma lalo o 1.5%. E kūkākūkā wale i ka manaʻo o nā kaʻina Monte Carlo: ehia mau pahu, ehia mau ala.
Ke pāʻani mākou i nā moku, i ka wā mua, a hiki i ka "wehewehe" i nā wahi o ka pahuhopu, hoʻohana pū mākou i kahi hoʻolālā Monte Carlo: "hoʻomaka" mākou i nā volleys random, a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka wehewehe ʻana i kahi o nā moku. ʻenemi. Hoʻohana ʻia ke kaʻina hana like e nā kiaʻi kahakai e ʻimi ai i nā poʻe nalo paha a i ʻole nā moku i loko o nā wīwī (e nānā i ka polokalamu SAROPS, no ka laʻana) i ka wā o ka ʻimi a hoʻopakele. Hiki i kēia simulation ke hoʻoulu i hoʻokahi kaukani helu ʻikepili i puʻunaue wale ʻia ma muli o nā ʻano like ʻole. Hoʻokumu ʻia nā ʻano hulina ma ka nānā ʻana i kēia ʻikepili no ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana i ka hiki ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa a me ka hiki ke ʻike, i hui pū ʻia me ka nui o ka holomua. ʻO ka hope loa, e lilo kēia i mea hoʻohana pono no ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka probability e hāʻawi i ke ala hoʻopakele wikiwiki a maʻalahi, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻopakele ʻana i nā Lives a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā kumuwaiwai.
Ma ka makemakika, he nui na wahi i hoohana ia ai keia mau ano, mai ka hoopili ana i na mea hoohui a i ole ke koho ana i na hooponopono o na hoohalike i hiki ole ke hooponopono ia ma ke ano pololei, a hiki i ka hoomaopopo ana ina paha he haneri-helu helu prima.(primality test).
nā mea hoʻohiwahiwa a ka mea makemakika
I kekahi mau mahina i hala aku nei, ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ke kiʻiʻoniʻoni 'Adventures of a Mathematician' (Thor Klein, Kelemānia, Polani a me United Kingdom, 2020) e pili ana iā Stanislaw Ulam a me kāna hana me nā ʻepekema ʻē aʻe ma Los Alamos. Ua ʻōlelo hou aʻe, ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia ia ma nā ʻāina he ʻumikūmālua, ʻaʻole ia mākou. E ʻae ʻaʻole ia he kiʻiʻoniʻoni wikiwiki, ʻaʻole superheroes, ʻaʻole hoʻi he mea hoʻohenehene i ka pūʻulu hana o ka pōkā atomika a me ka pōkā hydrogen ma hope mai, nā ʻano e noʻonoʻo ʻole ai kekahi mau alakaʻi i kēia lā ma mua o ka ʻōlelo hauʻoli ʻana i nā mea kaua nuklea. ; me ka paradoxically, ma Rusia ua hoʻokuʻu ʻia).
Ua hoʻokumu ʻia ke kiʻiʻoniʻoni ma ka puke ʻo Ulam o ka inoa hoʻokahi, i hoʻoponopono ʻia i ka makahiki 1984, i paʻi ʻia ma ka ʻōlelo Paniolo ma ʻelua (nā kumuhana ʻepekema e ʻānai iā mākou, me nā ʻōlelo, no laila, i kēia hihia, aia nā mea āpau). Eia naʻe, paipai au iā ia inā loaʻa iā ʻoe ka manawa e paʻa ai. E pili ana i ke kiʻiʻoniʻoni, aia iā ʻoe ka trailer. Ma ke kiʻi, kahi hiʻohiʻona kahi e aʻo ai ʻo Ulam i kekahi mau mea hoʻopunipuni e pili ana i nā pāʻani kāleka i kāna mau haumāna ma muli o ka helu ʻana o ka probability.
E nānā pono mākou i nā hana ʻē aʻe a Ulam i nā loiloi hope, e like me kahi spiral āu i lohe maoli ai.
He polopeka ʻo Alfonso Jesús Población Sáez ma ke Kulanui o Valladolid a he lālā o ka Outreach Commission o ka Royal Spanish Mathematical Society (RSME).
ʻO ka ABCdario of Mathematics kahi ʻāpana e kū mai ana mai ka hui pū ʻana me ka RSME Dissemination Commission.
