Mwoyo wenyika yemagetsi uri mumachipisi, chaizvoizvo Chris Miller, munyori webhuku rinonzi 'Chip War', anoreva kwavari sehondo yekutonga iyo inonyanya kukosha pasi rose. Uye United States neChina ndidzo mbiri colossi dziri mugakava kuyedza kutonga chiyero chechidiki, muhurongwa hwenanometers. Mateo Valero, purofesa wezvivakwa zvemakombuta paPolytechnic University yeCatalonia uye director weBarcelona Supercomputing Center, anotsinhira kuti "koronavirus iri pakati pegumi kusvika makumi mashanu yakakura kupfuura machipisi epamusoro."
Iko kugona kwehunyanzvi saka kunoisa kuchengetedzeka kwenyika, hukuru hwemauto uye cheni yekugovera pabvunzo, kunyanya mushure mekunetsana neTaiwan, ine basa rakakosha muhondo iyi, sezvo ichigadzira 90% yemachipisi epamberi. Kupinda kwechitsuwa ichi chinopandukira kwaizova chirwere chemoyo chehupfumi hwenyika. Dambudziko remunhu wese.
Washington yakataura kuti hutongi hutsva hwekutumirwa kunze kwenyika kwema semiconductors kuBeijing imhaka yekushandiswa kwavo "kugadzira masisitimu epamusoro emauto, kusanganisira zvombo zvekuparadza kukuru, nyukireya uye zvemazuva ano"; Kubva kuzvimiririra drones kuenda kumberi kwemagetsi ehondo masisitimu uye simba rekombuta, ivo vakanyanya kusimuka kubva kune semiconductors.
Miller akataura kuti “chipotsera chimwe chete chinorwisa fekitari yepamusoro muTaiwan, TSMC, inova mugadziri mukurusa wemafiriji echiFrench anoshandiswa zvakanyanya, achakonzera kurasikirwa kwemabhiriyoni kubva mukurasikirwa mukugadzirwa kwemafoni, nzvimbo dzedata, motokari , nharembozha. network uye mamwe matekinoroji". Pane zvese izvi, US, pasi peChips neScience Act, yaida kuti mamwe makambani ayo makuru ekugadzira machipisi amise kutakura kwavo kuChina. Uye yakavharira kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwezvishandiso zvakashandiswa kugadzira, pamwe nekurambidzwa kwetarenda 'yakagadzirwa muUSA' kushanda nemakambani ekuChina chip. Panguva imwecheteyo, yakawedzera mabhiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi masere emadhora ekugadzira semiconductor munyika imwe chete.
Rubatsiro kubva kune makambani ehurumende akadai seNvidia, Qualcomm kana Intel akabatsirwa, uye zvakare kubva kuTaiwanese TSMC, iyo yakavaka 12.000 miriyoni emadhora chirimwa muArizona. Manuel Muñiz, rector weIE University uye mukuru weSchool of Global Public Affairs, anotsinhira kuti China inonyanya kutsamira pazvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, uye haina hunyanzvi hwayo hwekugadzira mumunda wemachipisi akaomarara.
Pfungwa yeUSA, nematanho ayo ekurambidza pakutengeserana uye kuendesa tekinoroji, kugadzira bhodhoro uye kudzikisira kusimukira kwetekinoroji yehofori yeAsia muzvikamu zvine hunyanzvi. Sezvo Muñiz achitsanangura kuti "kusimukira kwehunyanzvi hweChina kunoshamisa, ndiro dambudziko guru rakasangana neUS kubva payakava simba guru. Ehe, muchikamu chetekinoroji maChinese ane zano re 'Made in China 2025' kwavakaburitsa pachena kuti vanoda kugona hungwaru hwekugadzira, marobhoti epamberi, aeronautics kana supercomputing ”.
Kambani yakakosha iTaiwanese TSMC, inokosha pamadhora mazana mana nemakumi mashanu nemazana mana emadhora. Zvakare, Taiwan inowana 454.000% yeGDP yayo kubva kumamicrochips. Asi Valero anokodzera kuti "China inoda Taiwan yeTSMC uye United States yakataura kuti ichagara ichidzivirira Taiwan, asi kusvika chete ine clone yehunyanzvi hwayo muUS." Uye China inoziva kukosha kwayo yakahaya anopfuura zana TSMC mainjiniya kumakambani ayo semiconductor. Sezvo kubiwa kwetarenda ndiro rimwe dhiri rinoitwa neChina kuti riwane yazvino chip tekinoroji.
hakuna munhu chitsuwa
Xi Jinping anoti makambani ekuChina, nemvumo yehurumende, anobvisa Western hegemony munzira dzese. Sezvo Miller akatsanangurira ABC: "sezvo China inoshandisa mari yakawanda pamachipisi pane kuunza mafuta kunze kwenyika." Saka yave mutengi mukuru wepasi rose weFrench fries. Gore rakapera mari yemumba muChina semiconductor indasitiri yakapfuura 157.000 bhiriyoni Lares, pamakumi maviri ari kukurumidza kukurumidza semiconductor makambani munyika, gumi nemapfumbamwe vaive maChinese.
"Mhoroi, iyo US uye vanobatana uye vanobatana navo vakaita seTaiwan, South Korea neJapan vane mukana wakakura mukugadzira chip kuChina. Zvisinei, mukana uyu wakaderera zvishoma mumakore achangopfuura. Pamusoro pezvo, iyo yakavhurika sosi kuferefeta kwakawana humbowo hwakakwana hwemachipisi eUS muChinese mauto masisitimu. Zvitsva zvekutonga kunze kwenyika zvakagadzirirwa kuti izvi zvinyanye kuoma," Miller akaudza ABC. Uye iyo pfungwa ndeyekuisa zvipingamupinyi izvi hofori yeAsia isati yabaiwa kubva pamhedzisiro yayo.
Chirimo cha2021 che hypersonic Chinese haze yaivimba nepamusoro-inoita tokeni ndiyo yainetsa United States. Yakanga iri 'nguva yeSputnik', General Mark S. Milley, mukuru wemauto eUS, akatotaura, achireva setiraiti yeSoviet yakakurudzira nhangemutange yemuchadenga munguva yeCold War. Hazvishamise kuti Muñiz anoreva kunetsana chaiko pakati peChina neUS seCold War.
“Nekurwisana kuri muUkraine, nyika yeAsia iri kucherechedza zvakanaka. Asi hupfumi hweChinese hwakabatanidzwa pasi rose kupfuura Russia. Chile, semuenzaniso, yakatengesa zvakawanda kuChina kupfuura kuUS neEU zvakasanganiswa. Hofori yeAsia yatokweretesa kuhurumende dzeLatin America kudarika Inter-American Bank, Development Bank yeLatin America neIMF zvasanganiswa. Izvi ndizvo zviri kuitika kune mamwe makondinendi. Iyo inonyanya kukosha yekutengeserana kupfuura iyo US ”, akatsanangura purofesa weIE.
kukwasva kwechikwata
Dambudziko nderekuti matanho akatangwa naBiden anozoshanda chete kana vadyidzani vake vakakanda mumwe. Nekudaro, zvichipihwa kutsamira pamusika weChinese, izvo zvichave zvakaoma. Enrique Dans, purofesa wehunyanzvi uye tekinoroji paIE University, akataura kuti "kana iwe uchida kudzora kuyerera kwezvinotengwa / kunze kwenyika kubva kuChina, uchaona kuti makambani eAmerica pachawo -akadai seNvidia- anopikisa nekuti ane musika wakakosha kwazvo. munyika yeAsia uye vanoda kuramba vachibhadhara. Uye zvakare vadyidzani veUS, seSouth Korea kana Taiwan, vanomanikidzwa kusiya musika wakakura kwazvo pasirese padyo navo. Panguva imwecheteyo, iwe unowana makambani eAmerica achigadzira chaiwo machipisi eChina uye ivo vanosara padanho rezvavanogona kutengesa kunze.
Pakupedzisira, The New York Times yakashuma kuti 30% yeAmerican semiconductor inputs inobva mukutengesa kuChina, iyo yakatumira kunze kwe $ 400.000 bhiriyoni inokosha yemachipisi muna 2021. Zvisinei, kudyidzana kwepasi rose uku kunokuvadzawo hofori yeAsia, kugadzira chip kunosanganisira kuva nenhamba huru ye zvikamu uye kuenda kuburikidza nedhizaini, kugadzira uye kugadzirisa maitiro zvinoenderana nenyika dzakawanda.
Saka, takatarisana nekuzvimiririra kwaida kuitwa neChina muna 2025, Mukutaura kuti "nhasi hapana anozvigona, ramangwana harisi kuitika ikoko. Border ipfungwa yechinyakare uye zvigadzirwa zvakawandisa zvinopihwa nemacheni anokosha anobva kwese kwese ”. Boston Consulting Group yakaratidza kuti kana dunhu iri repasi raizobhadhara kukosha kwekugadzira machipisi, mutengo, mukudyara chete, ungave $100.000 bhiriyoni. Uye zvinotora mabhiriyoni zana emadhora pagore kuti indasitiri irambe ichishanda.
Nekudaro, pamberi pezvirango zveUS, China inogona kuita nekushandisa tsamba yekurambidza pakupihwa kwezvicherwa zvepasi zvicherwa, izvo zvinoshandiswa machipisi. Yakazivisawo kuti yaimisa kumisa kutengeswa kwejecha kuTaiwan, kunova ndiko kunobva silicon. Uyewo, sezvinoyeuka Valero, "Russia ndiyo nyika munyika inoshandisa zvinhu zvisingawanzoitiki mumachipisi." Ndizvo izvo zvipingamupinyi zve geopolitical, njodzi dzinongoitika dzoga dzakadai sebhasikoro retsvina rakaitika muTaiwan kana matambudziko ekusanaya kwemvura anogona kubuda muchikamu chikuru chekugovera chinobatanidzwa mukugadzira chip, ndezvekuti kugadzirwa kwemachipisi kunoda mvura yakawanda, saka regai. US inokurudzira kuti izvidzivirire.
saizi mubvunzo
Boston Consulting Group inofungidzira kuti 92% yemachipi gumi nemanomita madiki, ayo ane simba zvakanyanya, anogadzirwa muTaiwan uye asara 10% muSouth Korea. Ehe, Taiwan ine TSMC neSouth Korea ine Samsung yakatarisana ne8% yemusika wepasi rose. United States haidi kuti dhiragoni yeAsia igadzire machipisi madiki pane gumi nemanomita. Nekudaro, kambani yeChinese SMIC yakashoropodzwa neTSMC nekubira maitiro ayo. Nyaya iripo ndeyekuti dai China yaiona handbrake ichiiswa pakugadzirwa kwemachipisi epamusoro, icharamba ichiita purofiti nekuti inogona kuramba ichiita machipisi akakura, akakura anoshandiswa mumaindasitiri mazhinji.
Zvichakadaro, YMTC, China hombe yekugadzira memory chip, yagara ichiwana rutsigiro rwemari kubva kuhurumende yeChina. Nekudaro, sekujekesa kwaValero, weBSC, "tekinoroji zhinji dzakasiyana dzinodiwa kugadzira machipisi. Chinonyanya kukosha pane zvese ndeye lithography ine muchina kubva kuDutch kambani ASML, iyo Philips spin-off, kusanganisira iyo iyo TSMC neIntel vakaisa mari mairi". Yakadhindwa mapatani pane silicon wafer uye ndiyo yakakosha yakakosha.
Iyo US yekushambadzira firewall inodzivirira China kubva kuwana yazvino modhi yemuchina uyu, sezvo zvimwe zvezvimedu zvinodarika chiuru ndezveAmerica uye izvo zvinoita kuti iite kune zvinorambidzwa neBiden, uyezve isingadzokerike. Nekudaro, ASML yakaramba ichitengesa michina yayo yechizvarwa kuChina, iyo muna 2021 yakatenga michina makumi masere nerimwe. ASML yakaramba kutevedzera kurambidzwa kweUS, zvichipihwa kuti muna 81 chete kutengesa kuChina kwakapfuura mabhiriyoni maviri nemazana manomwe emadhora.
Nenzira iyi, dhiragoni yeAsia inokwanisa kunzvenga zvirambidzo zveUnited States. Imwe mbiru yakakosha muindasitiri iyi ikambani yeBritish ARM inotengesa zvivakwa zvemachipisi, kureva makambani ekuAmerica Apple, Samsung kana TSMC. Mukuru wayo, René Hass, akadaro mubvunzurudzo neThe Verge kuti "pamwe munhu wese ari muhofisi yevatengi."
Nhamba idzi dzinoratidza kuti kutamiswa kwekugadzirwa kwechip uye kwakawanda kwekusangana kwayo muAsia kwakanganisa zvakanyanya United States neEurope. Uye zvino, sekutaura kunoita Miller, "hupfumi hwenyika hunoenderana nemachipisi akagadzirwa munzvimbo dzezvematongerwo enyika." Kearney consultant akataura kuti Old Continent ine njodzi huru yetekinoroji. Uye muhondo iyi yemachipisi eEurope mune ramangwana, ichafanirwa kusarudza divi nekuchengetedza kuonana nevaviri.
Panguva ino yakayambuka nekunetsana kuri kuwedzera pakati penyika mbiri idzi, nyanzvi dzinotaura kuti China neUnited States dziri kushandisa nzira ye 'salami cutting'. Inosanganisira zviito zvezvematongerwo enyika zvine chinangwa chekunetesa kana kuparadza anopikisa uye nekukunda nzvimbo. A reformulation of divide uye kukunda. Saka, semuenzaniso, United States inokwanisa nekupatsanura China kuchengetedza hutungamiriri mukufambira mberi kweAI. Nekuti desby Baidu. Sesosi yekutsvaga kweChinese pawebhu, ByteDance, muridzi weTik Tok, anovimba nemachipisi kubva kukambani yeUS Nvidia.
Izvi zvinoreva kugadziridzwa kwemhedzisiro isina chokwadi. Zviri pachena ndezvekuti, saGreg Allen, aimbova director weArtificial Intelligence paPentagon, achitaura ku 'The Economist', "matanho ake akasimba anotsvaga kucheka musoro wega wega wekupedzisira weindasitiri hydra yechip muChina" muChina. hondo yose yakarwiwa.
