ʻO ka puʻuwai o ka honua uila i loko o nā chips, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo Chris Miller, ka mea kākau o ka puke 'Chip War', e ʻōlelo ana iā lākou he kaua e hoʻomalu i ka waiwai koʻikoʻi loa o ka honua. A ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me Kina nā colossi ʻelua e hakakā nei e hoʻāʻo e hoʻokele i ka pālākiō o nā mea liʻiliʻi loa, ma ke ʻano o nā nanometer. ʻO Mateo Valero, ke kaukaʻi o ka hoʻolālā kamepiula ma ka Polytechnic University of Catalonia a me ka luna o ka Barcelona Supercomputing Center, e hōʻoia ana "ʻo ka coronavirus ma waena o ʻumi a me kanalima mau manawa ʻoi aku ka nui o nā chips kiʻekiʻe loa."
ʻO ka hiki ke hoʻomaʻamaʻa no laila e hoʻāʻo ai i ka palekana aupuni, ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe o ka pūʻali koa a me ke kaulahao hoʻolako, ʻoi aku ka nui ma hope o ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana me Taiwan, me kahi kuleana koʻikoʻi i kēia kaua, ʻoiai ʻo ia ka 90% o nā chips kiʻekiʻe loa. ʻO ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana i kēia mokupuni kipi, he puʻuwai ia no ka ʻoihana honua. He pilikia no nā mea a pau.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Wakinekona ʻo nā mana hou o ka lawe ʻana aku i nā semiconductor i Beijing ma muli o kā lākou hoʻohana ʻia "e hana i nā ʻōnaehana kaua holomua, me nā mea kaua o ka luku nui, nuklea a me nā mea hou"; Mai nā drones autonomous a hiki i nā ʻōnaehana kaua uila kiʻekiʻe a me ka mana computing, ua ulu nui lākou mai nā semiconductors.
Ua kuhikuhi ʻo Miller "ʻo kahi missile hoʻokahi e kūʻē i ka hale hana kiʻekiʻe loa ma Taiwan, ʻo TSMC, ʻo ia ka mea hana nui loa o ka ʻuala ʻuala lawelawe kiʻekiʻe, e hoʻolilo i nā piliona kālā mai nā poho o ka hana ʻana i nā kelepona, nā kikowaena data, nā kaʻa, ke kelepona. pūnaewele a me nā ʻenehana ʻē aʻe". No kēia mau mea a pau, ua koi ka US ma lalo o ka Chips and Science Act i kekahi o kāna mau ʻoihana hana chip holomua nui e hoʻōki i kā lākou hoʻouna ʻana i Kina. A ua ālai ia i ka lawe ʻana aku i nā mea hana i hoʻohana ʻia no ka hana ʻana iā lākou, i hui pū ʻia me ka pāpā ʻana i ke talena 'made in the USA' mai ka hana ʻana me nā hui chip Kina. I ka manawa like, ua hoʻonui ia i $ 280.000 biliona waiwai o ka hana semiconductor i hoʻokahi ʻāina.
ʻO nā haʻawina i loaʻa i nā hui mokuʻāina e like me Nvidia, Qualcomm a i ʻole Intel i pōmaikaʻi, a mai ka TSMC Taiwan, nāna i kūkulu i kahi mea kanu 12.000 miliona kālā ma Arizona. Manuel Muñiz, rector o IE University a me ka dean o ke Kula o ka Global Public Affairs, hōʻoia ʻo Kina e hilinaʻi nui ana i ka lawe ʻana mai, a ʻaʻohe ona mana hana ponoʻī i ke kahua o nā ʻāpana ʻoi loa.
ʻO ka manaʻo o ka USA, me kāna mau kaʻina paʻa i ke kālepa a me ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka ʻenehana, ʻo ia ka hana ʻana i kahi bottleneck a hoʻolohi i ka hoʻomohala ʻenehana o ka pilikua ʻAsia i nā ʻāpana hoʻolālā. Ma muli o ka wehewehe ʻana o Muñiz "he mea kupaianaha ka piʻi ʻana o ka ʻenehana China, ʻo ia ka paʻakikī nui loa a ka US i kū ai mai kona lilo ʻana i mana nui. ʻAe, ma ka ʻenehana ʻenehana ka poʻe Kina i ka hoʻolālā 'Made in China 2025' kahi a lākou i hoʻomaopopo ai i ko lākou makemake e haku i ka naʻauao artificial, advanced robotics, aeronautics a i ʻole supercomputing ".
ʻO kahi hui koʻikoʻi ka Taiwanese TSMC, i waiwai ʻia ma 454.000 miliona mau kālā. Eia kekahi, loaʻa iā Taiwan ka 15% o kāna GDP mai nā microchips. Akā ua kūpono ʻo Valero "makemake ʻo Kina iā Taiwan no TSMC a ua ʻōlelo ʻo ʻAmelika e pale mau ʻo ia iā Taiwan, akā aia wale nō a hiki i ka loaʻa ʻana o kāna ʻenehana i ka US." A ʻike ʻo Kina i kona koʻikoʻi ua hoʻolimalima ʻoi aku ma mua o 100 TSMC engineers no kāna mau hui semiconductor. No ka mea, ʻo ka ʻaihue ʻana o ke tālena ka hana ʻē aʻe a Kina e pāʻani ai e komo i ka ʻenehana chip hou loa.
aohe moku
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Xi Jinping, ʻo nā hui Kina, me ka ʻae ʻana o ka mokuʻāina, e hoʻopau i ka hegemony Komohana ma nā ʻano āpau. E like me ka wehewehe ʻana o Miller iā ABC: "ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka nui o ke kālā o Kina ma mua o ka lawe ʻana i ka aila." No laila ua lilo ʻo ia i mea kūʻai nui loa o ka honua i nā fries Farani. ʻO ka makahiki i hala aku nei ua ʻoi aku ka loaʻa kālā kūloko ma ka ʻoihana semiconductor Kina ma mua o 157.000 biliona Lares, o nā hui semiconductor 20 wikiwiki loa i ka honua, he 19 mau Kina.
"Aloha ʻoe, ʻo ka US a me nā hoa pili a me nā hoa like me Taiwan, South Korea a me Iapana he waiwai nui i ka hana chipmaking e pili ana iā Kina. Eia naʻe, ua emi iki kēia pono i nā makahiki i hala iho nei. Eia kekahi, ua loaʻa i ka noiʻi open source ka nui o nā hōʻike o nā ʻāpana US i nā pūʻali koa Kina. Hoʻolālā ʻia nā mana hoʻokuʻu hou i mea e paʻakikī ai kēia, "wahi a Miller iā ABC. A ʻo ka manaʻo e kau i kēia mau mea keakea ma mua o ka lilo ʻana o ka pilikua ʻAsia i ka pale ʻana mai kona hopena.
ʻO ka pūnāwai o 2021 o kahi hau Kina hypersonic i hilinaʻi i nā hōʻailona hana kiʻekiʻe ka mea i hopohopo ai ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. He 'manawa Sputnik' ia, ua ʻōlelo ʻo General Mark S. Milley, ke aliʻi koa US, e pili ana i ka satellite Soviet i hoʻoulu i ka heihei lewa i ka wā o ke Kaua anuanu. ʻAʻole ia he mea kupanaha, ʻōlelo ʻo Muñiz i ka hakakā maoli ma waena o Kina a me ʻAmelika e like me ke Kaua Cold.
"Me ka hakakā ma Ukraine, ke nānā maikaʻi nei ka ʻāina ʻo ʻAsia. Akā ʻoi aku ka hoʻokele waiwai o Kina i ka honua holoʻokoʻa ma mua o Russia. ʻO Chile, no ka laʻana, ua lawe nui aku i Kina ma mua o ka US a me ka EU i hui pū ʻia. Ua hāʻawi nui aku ka ʻAsia pilikua i nā aupuni ʻAmelika Latin ma mua o ka Inter-American Bank, ka Development Bank of Latin America a me ka IMF i hui pū ʻia. ʻO kēia ka hihia ma nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe. He hoa kālepa pili pono ia ma mua o ka US", i wehewehe ʻia e ke kaukaʻi IE.
hui hoe
ʻO ka pilikia, ʻo nā hana i hoʻomaka ʻia e Biden e kūleʻa wale nō inā ʻo kāna mau hoa pili i ka lālani hoʻokahi. Eia naʻe, hāʻawi ʻia i ka hilinaʻi ʻana i ka mākeke Kina, e paʻakikī ia. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Enrique Dans, ke kaukaʻi o ka hana hou a me ka ʻenehana ma ke Kulanui ʻo IE, "inā makemake ʻoe e hoʻomalu i ke kahe o nā mea lawe mai / lawe aku mai Kina, e ʻike ʻoe ʻo nā hui ʻAmelika ponoʻī - e like me Nvidia - kūʻē no ka mea he mākeke koʻikoʻi ko lākou. ma ka ʻāina ʻo ʻAsia a makemake e hoʻomau i ka bila. A i nā hoa pāʻoihana hoʻi o ka US, e like me South Korea a me Taiwan, ua koi ʻia lākou e haʻalele i ka mākeke nui loa o ka honua i loaʻa iā lākou ma hope. I ka manawa like, ʻike ʻoe i nā hui ʻAmelika e hana ana i nā chips kikoʻī no Kina a waiho ʻia lākou ma ka pale o ka mea hiki iā lākou ke lawe aku.
ʻO ka mea hope loa, ua hōʻike ʻo The New York Times he 30% o nā mea hoʻokomo semiconductor ʻAmelika e hele mai ana mai ke kūʻai aku ma Kina, ka mea i lawe ʻia ma mua o $ 400.000 biliona waiwai o nā chips ma 2021. nā ʻāpana a me ka hele ʻana i kahi hoʻolālā, hana ʻana a me ke kaʻina hana e pili ana i nā ʻāina he nui.
No laila, i mua o ka mana kūʻokoʻa i makemake ai ʻo Kina e hoʻokō i ka makahiki 2025, ʻōlelo ʻia "i kēia lā ʻaʻohe kanaka i lawa pono, ʻaʻole hiki i ka wā e hiki mai ana. He manaʻo kahiko nā palena a ua hoʻolako ʻia nā huahana hou aʻe e nā kaulahao waiwai e hele mai ana mai nā wahi a pau. Ua hōʻike ʻo Boston Consulting Group inā e uku ʻia kēia māhele o ka honua no ka waiwai o ka hana ʻana i nā chips, ʻo ke kumukūʻai, ma ka hoʻopukapuka wale ʻana, he $100.000 biliona. A ma kahi o XNUMX biliona kālā i kēlā me kēia makahiki e mālama i ka ʻoihana.
Eia nō naʻe, i mua o ka hoʻopaʻi ʻana o ka US, hiki i Kina ke pane me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka leka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka hoʻolako ʻana i nā minelala o ka honua i hana ʻia, i hoʻohana ʻia no nā chips. Ua hoʻolaha hoʻi ʻo ia e hoʻokuʻu ana i ka hoʻopau ʻana i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o ke one i Taiwan, ʻo ia ke kumu o ka silikoni. Eia kekahi, e like me ka hoʻomanaʻo ʻana o Valero, "ʻo Russia ka ʻāina ma ka honua e hoʻohana nei i nā mea laha loa i nā chips." ʻO ia nā pilikia geopolitical, nā pōʻino kūlohelohe e like me ke kaʻa kaʻa lepo i hana ʻia ma Taiwan a i ʻole nā pilikia maloʻo e kū mai i loko o ke kaulahao lako nui e pili ana i ka hana ʻana i kahi chip, ʻo ia ka mea e pono ai ka nui o ka wai i ka hana ʻana i nā chips. koi ʻo ʻAmelika iā ia e pale iā ia iho.
nīnau nui
Manaʻo ʻo Boston Consulting Group he 92% o nā chips 10 nanometers liʻiliʻi, ʻo ia ka mea ikaika loa, i hana ʻia ma Taiwan a ʻo ke koena 8% ma South Korea. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻo Taiwan me TSMC a me South Korea me Samsung e kālele ana i ka 81% o ka mākeke honua. ʻAʻole makemake ʻo ʻAmelika i ka deragona ʻAsia e hana i nā ʻāpana liʻiliʻi ma mua o 10 nanometers. Eia naʻe, ua hoʻohewa ʻia ka hui Kina SMIC e TSMC no ka hacking i kāna kaʻina hana. ʻO ka manaʻo, inā ʻike ʻo Kina i ka hoʻokomo ʻana o ka handbrake i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā chips ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, e loaʻa mau ana ka waiwai no ka mea hiki iā ia ke hoʻomau i ka hana ʻana i nā ʻāpana ʻoi aʻe i hoʻohana ʻia i nā ʻoihana he nui.
I kēia manawa, ua loaʻa lōʻihi ke kākoʻo kālā mai ke aupuni Kina iā YMTC, ka mea hana chip hoʻomanaʻo nui loa o Kina. Eia naʻe, e like me ka wehewehe ʻana o Valero, mai ka BSC, "he nui nā ʻenehana like ʻole e pono ai e hana i nā chips. ʻO ka mea nui o nā mea a pau, ʻo ia ka lithography i loaʻa kahi mīkini mai ka hui Dutch ʻo ASML, he Philips spin-off, me ka mea a TSMC a me Intel i hoʻokomo ai. Paʻi ʻia nā mamana ma kahi wafer silika a ʻo ia ke kumu nui.
ʻO ka pā ahi pāʻoihana US ke pale aku iā Kina mai ke komo ʻana i ke kumu hoʻohālike hou loa o kēia mīkini, no ka mea, ʻo kekahi o kāna mau ʻāpana ʻoi aku ma mua o hoʻokahi kaukani he ʻAmelika a ʻo ia ka mea e maʻalahi ai i nā kapu a Biden, a ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻololi ʻia. Eia nō naʻe, ua hoʻomau ʻo ASML i ke kūʻai aku ʻana i kāna mau mea hana mua i Kina, a ma 2021 i kūʻai aku ai i nā mīkini 81. Ua hōʻole ʻo ASML e hahai i ka pāpā ʻana o US, no ka mea ma 2021 wale nō ke kūʻai aku ma Kina ma mua o 2.700 biliona kālā.
Ma kēia ʻano, hoʻokele ka deragona ʻAsia e kāpae i nā mea paʻa o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻO kekahi pou kumu ʻē aʻe i kēia ʻoihana ʻo ka hui Pelekane ʻo ARM e kūʻai aku nei i ka hoʻolālā ʻana o nā chips, ʻo ia hoʻi nā hui ʻAmelika ʻo Apple, Samsung a i ʻole TSMC. ʻO kāna CEO, ʻo René Hass, i ʻōlelo ʻia i loko o kahi hālāwai ninaninau me The Verge "ʻo nā mea āpau aia i kāna kōpili mea kūʻai aku."
Hōʻike kēia mau helu i ka neʻe ʻana o ka hana chip a me ka hapa nui o kāna ʻike ʻana ma Asia i kuhi hewa ʻole i ka United States a me ʻEulopa. A i kēia manawa, e like me kā Miller i kuhikuhi ai, "ʻo ka hoʻokele waiwai o ka honua e pili ana i nā ʻāpana i hana ʻia ma nā wahi wela geopolitical." Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Kearney consultancy he pilikia nui ka ʻenehana kahiko i ka Old Continent. A i kēia kaua no nā chips o ʻEulopa i ka wā e hiki mai ana, pono ia e koho i kahi ʻaoʻao ma ka mālama ʻana i ka pilina me nā mea ʻelua.
I kēia manawa me ka piʻi ʻana o ka haunaele ma waena o nā ʻāina ʻelua, ʻōlelo ka poʻe loea e hoʻohana ana ʻo Kina a me ʻAmelika i ke ʻano ʻoki 'salami'. Aia i loko o nā hana kālai'āina e hoʻonāwaliwali a luku paha i kahi hoa paio a lanakila i nā wahi. ʻO kahi hoʻoponopono hou o ka māhele a lanakila. No laila, no ka laʻana, hoʻokele ʻo ʻAmelika i ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana iā Kina e mālama i ke alakaʻi i ka holomua o AI. No ka mea ʻo desby Baidu. Ma ke ʻano he kumu o ka ʻimi pūnaewele Kina, ʻo ByteDance, ka mea nona Tik Tok, e hilinaʻi nei i nā chips mai ka hui US Nvidia.
Hōʻike kēia i ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana i nā hopena maopopo ʻole. ʻO ka mea maopopo loa, ʻo Greg Allen, ka luna hoʻomalu o Artificial Intelligence ma ka Pentagon, i ʻōlelo ai iā 'The Economist', "ʻo kāna mau hana koʻikoʻi e ʻimi e ʻoki i kēlā me kēia poʻo hope o ka hydra ʻoihana o ka chip ma Kina" i ka kaua nui i hoʻouka ʻia.
