Sakamakon farko na zabukan ‘yan majalisar dokokin Amurka na nuni da cewa ‘yan jam’iyyar Republican a majalisar dokokin kasar sun dawo da madafun iko, amma ba tare da cimma wata tangarda ba. A ranar Talata ne Amurkawa suka kada kuri’a don sabunta dukkanin kujeru 435 na majalisar wakilai da na uku a majalisar dattawa, dukkansu suna da ‘yar rinjaye ga ‘yan Democrat. Sun kuma zabi miliyoyi na jahohi da na cikin gida, wasu muhimman abubuwa, kamar gwamnonin jihohi 36.
Sake kirga kuri'un da ka iya daukar kwanaki a zabukan da ke kusa da juna a wasu muhimman jihohi, zai nuna yadda za a hukunta 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat a rumfunan zabe. A yanzu dai kamar yadda kididdigar kididdigar kasar ta nuna, mai yiwuwa sakamakon zaben shi ne 'yan jam'iyyar Republican za su dawo da rinjayen da suke da shi a majalisar wakilai ta kasa, wato majalisar wakilai.
Suna buƙatar karkatar da mafi ƙanƙanta gundumomi biyar da 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat ke rike da su kuma sun yi hakan a cikin dare takwas da sanyin safiyar Laraba, tare da fiye da rabin kujerun da aka riga aka ba su.
Idan kawai sun sami rinjaye na Republican a cikin Majalisar Wakilai, ajandar majalisa na shugaban kasa, Democrat Joe Biden, za ta kasance cikin rudani. Bugu da kari, 'yan jam'iyyar Republican za su yi amfani da sabon rinjayensu don inganta kwamitocin bincike kan shi kansa Biden da wasu manyan jami'an gwamnatinsa, kamar babban lauyan gwamnati, Merrick Garland.
A cikin jawabinsa Kevin McCarthy, shugaban 'yan tsiraru na jam'iyyar Republican kuma zai zama kakakin majalisar wakilai idan wannan rinjaye ya tabbata, "Ko a fili yake cewa zai dawo da majalisar. "Lokacin da kuka tashi gobe," ya tabbatar wa masu jefa kuri'arsa, shugabar jam'iyyar Democrat, Nancy Pelosi, "za ta kasance cikin tsiraru."
'Red tide' yana ja da baya
Duk da irin wadannan alamu, ‘yan jam’iyyar Republican da wasu ra’ayoyin jama’a da dama suka yi hasashe a wannan Talata, da alama ba za su kai ga Amurka ba, kamar yadda alkaluman kidayar jama’a ke tafe, yiyuwar tabarbarewar jam’iyyar Democrat za ta ragu da kadan . amma wadanda za su fafata ne za su tantance. Mafi karancin rinjaye a majalisar wakilai zai bukaci McCarhty ya mika wuya kan wasu batutuwa ga bangaren jam'iyyar mai matsakaicin ra'ayi. Ƙididdigar ƙarshe za ta tabbatar da abin da 'yan Republican za su samu a Majalisa.
Wadannan zabukan ‘yan majalisar dokoki na tsakiyar wa’adi – ‘midterms’, a cikin kalmominsu a Turanci- a al’adance suna azabtar da jam’iyyar da ke mulki a Fadar White House. Ƙara zuwa ga gaskiyar cewa Biden ya nutse a cikin ƙimar shahararsa, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ɓace, da kuma yanayin rashin tsaro da Amurka ke fuskanta tun bayan barkewar cutar ta Covid-19, wacce ta mamaye saƙon 'yan Republican. Wani hadaddiyar giyar da aka yi hasashe ta hanyar shan kayen da jam'iyyar da ke mulki ke yi.
'Yan jam'iyyar Democrat sun yi kokarin daidaita yakin neman zaben kan hukuncin Kotun Koli - tare da karfafa rinjayen masu ra'ayin mazan jiya tun lokacin shugabancin Donald Trump - kan zubar da ciki da kuma tsattsauran ra'ayin 'Trumpist' da ke mamaye wani bangare na jam'iyyar Republican, kuma za mu gani. wane tasiri na karshe ya yi niyyar kada kuri'a.
Al'amura za su kara kusantowa a zabukan 'yan majalisar dattawa, wanda ka iya daukar kwanaki kafin kammalawa, kuma a ina ne sakamakon zai amfani 'yan Democrat. A halin yanzu, yawancin 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat suna da mafi ƙarancin: suna ɗaure Sanatoci hamsin tare da 'yan Republican, amma ƙwanƙwasa ta karye ta hanyar jefa kuri'a na kakakin majalisar, mataimakin shugaban kasa Kamala Harris.
Don haka, 'yan Republican suna buƙatar juya kujera ɗaya kawai don sarrafa Majalisar Dattawa. 'Yan jam'iyyar Democrat sun yi nasarar ci gaba da rike wasu sansanonin da ake ganin suna cikin hadari, kamar kujerun da ake takaddama a kai a Washington, Oregon, Arizona ko New Hampshire, wadanda tuni ba su da damar samun nasara ga 'yan Republican. Kuma ko da ƙasa bayan takaddamar kujera a Pennsylvania, wanda kawai 'yan Democrat za su iya zana daga 'yan Republican, ya fadi a gefen tsohon. Manyan kafafen yada labaran Amurka sun baiwa dan Democrat John Fetterman nasara da tsakar dare, wanda ya doke Mehmet Oz na Republican da mafi karanci.
Sakamakon haka, jam'iyyar Democrat na bukatar yakar jihohi ukun da suka rage a yanke shawara kuma yanzu haka suna hannun jam'iyyar Democrat: Georgia, Arizona da Nevada. A farkon, ƙidayar ta yi kusa sosai tsakanin ɗan Republican Herschel Walker da ɗan Democrat Raphael Warnock. Ma'auni na Jojiya ya ba da umarnin sauraren kara na biyu idan kun goyi bayan kashi 50% na 'yan takarar, kuma saboda akwai matsala.
Har ila yau, ƙidayar ta ci gaba sosai a cikin Wisconsin tsakanin ɗan Republican Ron Johnson da na Democrat Mandela Barnes, kodayake yana da fa'ida ta farko. Nasarar hasashe ga Barnes zai zama babban tashin hankali na zaɓe.
Yaki ga Majalisar Dattawa
Kundin karshe na Majalisar Dattawa zai kasance mai matukar muhimmanci wajen rabon madafun iko a Amurka Idan 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat suka rike shi, zai kasance mai daidaitawa ga rinjayen 'yan Republican a majalisar wakilai. Rasa shi zai fadada dakin 'yan jam'iyyar Republican a cikin shekaru biyu na karshe na wa'adin farko na Biden kuma zai kawo cikas ga yanke shawara da yawa, kamar nadin 'yan takara, alal misali, zuwa Kotun Koli.
Bayan zabukan majalisa, 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat sun sami damar yin tsayin daka da kuma karfi a zabukan jihohi masu matukar muhimmanci, irin su gwamna, mai jigilar kaya wanda aka zaba a cikin adibas 36.
Wannan shi ne batun New York, jihar da ke da kakkarfan hadin gwiwar Demokaradiyya, wanda kuma aka yi barazana a zagaye na karshe na yakin neman zabe saboda karfin 'yan Republican a rumfunan zabe. A ƙarshe, gwamna na yanzu, Kathy Hochul, ya sanya ɗan Republican Lee Zeldin. Sauran gwamnonin jihohin da Joe Biden ya yi nasara a shekarar 2020, kamar Michigan ko Wisconsin, suma sun fada bangaren Democrat. Kuma irin wannan abu ya faru da wasu jihar Republican tare da gwamnan Democrat, kamar Laura Kelly, a Kansas.
Dan jam'iyyar Democrat Josh Shapiro ya kuma yi nasara a Pennsylvania da Doug Mastriano, babban mai goyon bayan Trump, a zaben da ake ganin yana da matukar muhimmanci kuma wanda ya yi nasara zai jagoranci zaben shugaban kasa na 2024 a cikin wani muhimmin mataki. Wani abu makamancin haka yana faruwa a Arizona da Nevada, inda har yanzu akwai kuri'u da yawa da za a kirga.
